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Will Gold and Silver Prices See a New Dawn in 2023? Expert Insights Inside - January 4, 2026

Gold & Silver Market Outlook - January 4, 2026

Market Update

The precious metals complex kicked off the new year with a quiet start, with both gold and silver trading flat on January 4th.

MetalPrice (USD)Change% ChangeDay HighDay Low
Gold (XAU)4330.300.000.00%4373.604287.00
Silver (XAG)572.770.000.00%578.50567.04

Gold (XAU) Analysis

Technical Analysis

The gold price has been stuck in a tight trading range over the past week, with the $4300-$4400 zone serving as both support and resistance. The RSI indicator is currently sitting at 46.35, indicating a slight bearish bias. However, the MACD line remains above zero, suggesting that the short-term trend is still bullish.

Macro Analysis

The lack of movement in gold prices can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, inflation expectations have been relatively stable, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecast remaining unchanged at 2.3%. Secondly, interest rates are expected to remain low for an extended period, reducing the allure of safe-haven assets like gold.

Central bank expectations also play a crucial role in shaping gold prices. The Federal Reserve has signaled that it will continue to prioritize economic growth over inflation concerns, which may lead to a prolonged period of low interest rates and reduced demand for gold as a hedge against inflation.

However, there are still some drivers that could potentially drive gold prices higher. Risk appetite remains subdued due to ongoing global economic uncertainty, and the US Dollar has been strengthening in recent weeks, making gold more expensive for foreign investors.

Trading Bias

Given the current technical and macro outlook, we maintain a Hold recommendation on gold for the short term. The price action is expected to remain range-bound until there are clear signs of a break above or below the $4300-$4400 zone.

Key support levels: $4287.00
Key resistance levels: $4373.60

Silver (XAG) Analysis

Technical Analysis

Similar to gold, silver prices have also been trading flat over the past week, with the $570-$580 zone serving as a key area of interest. The RSI indicator is currently at 48.25, indicating a slight bearish bias. However, the MACD line remains above zero, suggesting that the short-term trend is still bullish.

Macro Analysis

Silver prices have also been influenced by the same factors that are affecting gold. Inflation expectations and interest rates remain stable, reducing the allure of silver as a hedge against inflation. Central bank expectations are also similar to those for gold, with the Federal Reserve prioritizing economic growth over inflation concerns.

However, there is one key difference between the two metals: risk appetite remains subdued due to ongoing global economic uncertainty, but this is more pronounced in the silver market. The US Dollar has been strengthening in recent weeks, making silver more expensive for foreign investors and reducing demand.

Trading Bias

Given the current technical and macro outlook, we recommend a Sell recommendation on silver for the short term. While there are some drivers that could potentially drive silver prices higher, such as a decline in risk appetite or a weakening US Dollar, we believe that these factors will be outweighed by the ongoing economic uncertainty.

Key support levels: $567.04
Key resistance levels: $578.50

Actionable Insights

  • Traders should remain cautious and patient as both gold and silver prices are expected to remain range-bound for an extended period.
  • A break above or below key technical levels could potentially trigger a significant price move in either direction.
  • Risk management remains crucial, with traders advised to maintain stop-loss orders and adjust their positions accordingly.

Risk Management Reminders

  • The precious metals complex is known for its volatility, making it essential to maintain a well-diversified portfolio and adjust risk exposure as needed.
  • Traders should remain informed about macroeconomic developments and central bank expectations, as these can have a significant impact on metal prices.

By Malik Abualzait

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